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However, oil is a global, fungible commodity and Russia can still sell oil to non-boycotting nations. Sanctions may remove some of this oil supply, as the United States (and possibly some European countries) reduce or end purchases of Russian oil. Russia produces about 12% of global crude oil supplies. Most importantly, the price of oil is likely to remain higher than it would have otherwise-although how much higher is an open question.The US economy is likely to feel the impact of a continuing Ukraine crisis through two main channels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not likely to derail the US recovery, but it will push up inflation in the short run. If productivity growth remains high, many of the long-term issues facing the US economy-such as financing social security-will likely become considerably easier to solve.īut just as Omicron’s potential to impact the economy waned, geopolitical tensions increased. But productivity growth has remained surprisingly strong during the recovery from the pandemic, about 2% over the four quarters to December 2021.

Previous Deloitte forecasts assumed trend productivity was less than 1%.

The pandemic drove the adoption of technology and-as a consequence-appears to have accelerated labor productivity growth.

1 But the willingness to invest suggests that businesses are surprisingly optimistic about the future. The pandemic shifted investment away from buildings and toward equipment and information products.

Strong profits have supported business investment.

That’s much better than many businesses had reason to expect when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. Profits in Q3 2021 were 21% above the prepandemic level.

Corporate profits are more than satisfactory.

The labor force participation rate has started to pick up, as some of the folks who left the labor force are coming back to work.

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The unemployment rate is already back to the full employment level.

Inflation and related problems, such as tangled supply chains, may continue to challenge business leaders and policymakers, but the US economy is performing well by most measures: While Omicron took infection rates to a new high, little trace appeared in economic data.

The US economy’s performance in the past few months has been better than most people expected-or even realized. The Russia-Ukraine war won’t derail the recovery